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Red Zone Woes Traced To First Down
by Mike Spofford, Packers.com
posted 03/01/2007
When asked last week at the NFL Scouting Combine how the Packers can improve their red-zone offense, Head Coach Mike McCarthy didn't give the answer many were expecting.
He didn't say the Packers needed to land a big-time playmaker in the offseason to be a go-to guy in the red zone. Not to say that wouldn't help, because a team can never have enough playmakers. But he didn't point the finger at the team's personnel for the struggles, which resulted in just 16 touchdowns over 49 possessions that crossed the opponent's 20-yard line, a .327 success rate that ranked second from the bottom in the league.
Instead, his answer was much more analytical and in tune with having recently completed (along with the rest of his coaching staff) the scheme evaluation and self-scouting for 2006 that helps to identify key areas to emphasize during preparation for the upcoming season.
"Watching the red zone, ... it's the production on first down," McCarthy said. "It's something that needs to increase."
A look at the statistics shows McCarthy is exactly right.
Generally speaking, no matter where it is on the field, the offense considers a gain of 4 or more yards on first down a "win." Getting to second-and-6 or shorter keeps more options open in the playbook and the defense guessing.
The same holds true in the red zone, if not to a heightened degree, where defenses are packed in tighter. The playbook is already somewhat limited because of the shorter field, and failing to win on first down puts the defense at an even greater advantage.
But the Packers failed to win on first down in the red zone at an alarming, and costly, rate.
Of those 49 red-zone possessions, the Packers had 64 first downs inside the opponents' 20 (or near enough to cross the 20 on first down). On those 64 plays, the Packers gained 3 yards or less 48 times, or on three-fourths of those snaps.
The first-down production simply didn't put the offense in enough favorable down-and-distance situations to score points efficiently. A failed first down didn't doom every red-zone possession - 10 times when the Packers gained less than 4 yards on a red-zone first down, the drive still ended in a touchdown - but there were clearly too many opportunities the offense let slip away with poor execution on first down.
The 48 "losses" on first down broke down as follows: 21 rushes and three pass completions of 3 yards or less, 19 incomplete passes, two interceptions, one sack, one fumble, and one spike to stop the clock (with an ensuing sack on second down).
Meanwhile the 16 "wins" on first down consisted of six touchdowns (some of less than 3 yards), eight carries for a total of 63 yards (7.9 avg.), one pass for 5 yards, and one defensive penalty.
"The red zone in and of itself is a very dynamic area because everything happens faster," General Manager Ted Thompson said. "It happens faster for the defense, it happens faster for the offense. If you have a little success, you're more confident the next time you go down. If you go down and stub your toe a couple times, then you're less confident."
There are a number of things that can help restore that confidence. New acquisitions through the draft and free agency may play a factor, but by pointing to first-down production in the red zone as the primary culprit, McCarthy is reinforcing his approach that the most important improvement the Packers can and will make in this offseason is with the players they currently have.
In other words, gaining 4 or more yards on first down in the red zone by getting all the team's young talent to continue improving could do as much, if not more, to boost point production as adding personnel.
"We're really looking forward to kicking off our offseason program and taking advantage of all those young guys getting a year better," McCarthy said.
The improvement from within will come via better fundamentals, more reliable execution and more attention to detail, which will help in any respect but especially in the red zone, where any and every mistake is magnified.
"Everything else is just different things - fundamentals, catching the football, better routes," McCarthy said. "Just the little fundamentals of the game that obviously are important, and we need to do a better job."
That goes for the current Packers, as well as anyone who joins the team through the draft or free agency over the next couple of months.
"I think it's a team deal, and obviously that's another area we're going to try to get better at," Thompson said. |
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