GREEN BAY – The last three times the Packers have visited Detroit, points have lit up the Ford Field scoreboard.
The final on Thanksgiving in 2023 was 29-22 Packers. The following year on the Thursday night after Thanksgiving, it was 34-31 Lions. Then last year, back on the holiday again, 31-24 Packers.
So it would be natural to think Sunday's showdown between the Packers (4-2) and Lions (3-2) could see more of the same. Or perhaps not.
First, the case for another potential shootout.
Lions QB Jared Goff is carving defenses up to the tune of a 111.3 passer rating, and he has yet to throw an interception this season. Receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, along with tight end Sam LaPorta, are all helping Detroit average better than 30 points per game.
Meanwhile running back Jahmyr Gibbs is earning every penny of the record-setting contract he signed over the summer, as he's on pace for nearly 2,500 yards from scrimmage and 30 total touchdowns.
"I think the offense runs through him, to be honest with you," Packers slot corner Javon Bullard said of Gibbs. "He's the motor in that offense."
As well as the Lions' single most dangerous player, and the task of containing him just got harder when linebacker Zaire Franklin was ruled out for Sunday's game due to a shin injury.
"You cannot relax for one second against this guy because he's capable of reversing field and scoring touchdowns," Head Coach Matt LaFleur said. "He's got elite change-of-direction skills, he can stick his foot in the ground, bounce one way, but he's also got elite home-run speed."
At the same time, the Packers appear to be hitting their stride offensively.
They've scored 54 points over the last two games, speedy receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have combined for more than 1,000 yards and nine TDs so far, and QB Jordan Love is regularly generating explosive plays despite all the hits he's taken and little help from the ground game.
"Right now I think the pass game is rolling," Love said. "We're playing at a high level in the pass game, putting up a lot of yards.
"No matter who we're playing, I always like our guys and our matchups. We create some mismatches just with our speed and who we got on the outside."
Detroit's pass defense is struggling, while the Lions' offense gets to operate at home. A shootout is certainly a possibility.
Unless … a couple of other factors come into play.
One is Detroit's pass rush, which has been fierce. The Lions lead the league with 20 sacks over their five games, four different rushers (DJ Wonnum, Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and Derrick Barnes) have at least three sacks on the season, and the Packers' pass protection has had its rough games.
It's to be determined whether it's time for Aaron Banks and/or Kevin Zeitler to step in at guard, and if Josh Jacobs can give the running game a boost, that should help the pass pro, too. But either way, the Lions will test Green Bay's protection of Love because at some point, a pass rush like Detroit's should help out the pass defense.
"Their style of play, it's all over the tape," LaFleur said. "These guys play hard, they rush hard, they hit you hard. They've given up some big, explosive plays, but especially looking at the last game vs. Arizona, they were firing away. It's always a challenge going there and we know that they'll be ready for us."
On the flip side, the Packers are sporting maybe the best defense they've brought to this matchup in recent years.
Green Bay has held four of its last five opponents to 17 points or less as new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon has gotten to know his troops, and vice versa.
The outlier was the Week 3 Thursday night game against the Falcons, when the defense faltered badly and running back Bijan Robinson ran wild. Gibbs is very Bijan-like, if not better, and the Packers won't soon forget those breakdowns from a month ago, which LaFleur quipped were "lessons on what not to do."
"Obviously the last time we played a premium back, it wasn't too great," safety Xavier McKinney said. "We were not proud of the performance that we put out there."
The defensive ship was righted quickly, but this becomes another prove-it matchup. On top of that, Green Bay and its league-leading nine interceptions gets a chance to hand Goff his first of the year.
"What an opportunity for us," said Bullard, who is still looking for his first career interception in his third season. "Things are starting to gel together. We're playing as one, playing as a team, and I think the ceiling is only going to get higher for us."
So maybe Detroit's pass rush, or Green Bay's ascending defense, prevent a shootout. Or this game follows the pattern of recent visits to Detroit and becomes a bit of a track meet.
Regardless, there's no denying the importance of this game in the NFC North. The loser in Detroit will absorb a third defeat and face a decidedly tougher uphill climb to catch the currently unbeaten Vikings atop the division.
"You've got to win these matchups when they present themselves," Love said. "Obviously, the goal for us is to win the division, and all that's still out there in front of us. You've got to handle business against these teams, and everybody in the division is very good."
