GREEN BAY – After the win at Tampa Bay, quarterback Jordan Love felt the Packers' offense was "close" to hitting its stride.
The revamped offensive line began protecting better, the running game produced a couple of explosive gains, and the opportunities were there for a bigger day on the scoreboard.
That line in front of Love may see yet another change if veteran Kevin Zeitleris ready to step in at right guard this week, and how the Packers divvy up backfield reps remains to be seen after backs MarShawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson both put the ball on the ground in the fourth quarter, frustrating Head Coach Matt LaFleur.
But potential personnel adjustments aside, the Packers' offense will only live up to Love's projection if it starts converting at a higher rate on third down.
And this week's opponent, the archrival Chicago Bears, will make that task even tougher than it's already been.
The Bears come into Lambeau Field this weekend ranked second in the league in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 24% of the time.
Meanwhile, the Packers are trying to climb up from the bottom with their 26% conversion rate on offense.
The matchup pits an offense and defense at opposite ends of the third-down spectrum, and defying the stats as they currently stand is practically a necessity for the Packers to emerge victorious Sunday.
"We look at the numbers, they're not where they need to be," Love said after Wednesday's practice. "We talk about it. We gotta finish drives, but it starts with staying on the field. We can't be having three-and-outs or feeling like we go out there and we're running back to the sidelines."
That's what the Bears are good at making opponents do, as defensive coordinator Dennis Allen runs various pressure looks up front, which the coverage counts on to force the ball to come out early, and the back end reacts accordingly.
"They contest you, they challenge you. It puts a lot of stress on you to win your one-on-ones," LaFleur said. "So you've got to stay on schedule."
That means staying out of third-and-long, which has been a problem for LaFleur, Love & Co.
Of the Packers' 46 third downs this season, they've needed six or more yards to convert on 30 of them, or nearly two-thirds of the time. On 16 of those, it's been double-digit yardage to go. That's no way to live nor succeed as an offense.
A key reason for being in tough spots has been penalties, backing the offense up on early downs and forcing the unit to just get back on track by third down. It simply makes life difficult to start so many series in first-and-15 or 20.
Dropped passes haven't helped either, no matter which down they've occurred. Tight end Tucker Kraft, who is by no means the only culprit, was one of the most sure-handed pass catchers on the team during his first three NFL seasons but has multiple drops through the first month.
Given his track record, they've been alarming, and while owning them, he also has an idea why they've happened.
"I think I'm just trying to do too much," Kraft said. "Offensively, we might get into a lull, and I think I can make the game-saving play right there. I'm taking my eyes off the ball. Can't do anything without the ball, so I'm just going to slow down and play my role. Catch the football."
To read further into Kraft's words, miscues on offense have somewhat snowballed, leading to all the third-and-longs and league-worst conversion rate.
The Packers have survived their self-inflicted wounds to be 2-2 at this point, but it's obvious improvement needs to come quick with the defending NFC North champs coming to town. If both units play to their third-down numbers, and Green Bay wins only one-fourth of the time while Chicago wins three-fourths, that's a bad recipe for the Packers.
All that said, Love continues to maintain the offense isn't far from turning a corner. Rounding that bend can't come soon enough.
"We're right there," he said. "I mentioned after the game I feel like we're close. We've just got to stack drives, and once you continue to build on this stuff … it feels like we're playing cleaner ball, and I think we'll fix a lot of the mistakes.
"But it doesn't feel good when you're going three-and-out and go back to the sideline. So we gotta put drives together and execute, and it obviously starts with third downs."
