Inbox: He just keeps showing up and doing his job

Tommy from Washburn, WI

You guess? Does that mean you've already seen the Rivals jerseys? Can you give us a little taste, maybe tell us your first impression? I'm giddy with anticipation!

Sorry, I'm sworn to secrecy.

Patrick from Ashland, WI

Dear Mike, I apologize for the II people who are going to admonish you for leaving Ahman Green off the list. Drafted being the key word. Thanks for putting Ivery on the list. He is a forgotten good one.

It seemed pretty clear to me the question was about running backs the Packers drafted, which I reiterated in my answer. That didn't stop countless readers (and I must use that term loosely) from accusing me of an oversight by not listing Green. Sigh.

Derek from Lexington, KY

I found Daniel from Lakeland, FL's question about turnovers and the response very interesting, because as I understand it, besides being super important to winning or losing a game, they are also very likely to regress to the mean from one year to the next. It's interesting to consider how much luck or the bounce of the ball affects each game.

There's some truth to that, but it's really takeaways that regress to the mean, not necessarily giveaways. If you don't protect the ball in this game, luck and bounces will only help you so much.

Matt from Waunakee, WI

Hi Mike, regarding meaningful stats. I can't remember the percentage. If the defense or special teams scores a TD the win rate is pretty high.

True, but if the defense scores, that's also a turnover, and I was focusing on stats that don't directly relate to points anyway.

Bruce from Las Vegas, NV

Turnover ratio is a good prediction of winners, but how about passer rating? It is often related to turnover ratio, but it's not often that the QB with the lower passer rating celebrates a win.

The winning percentages are similar to turnover margin, but again, a QB's passer rating is built in part on TD passes, so it's not a stat independent of points.

Jacob from Grand Rapids, MI

The posts about whether to go for a big play made me think of a metaphor. It's like blackjack with the dealer (defense) showing you half their hand and needing to rely on the probability of expected outcomes to make the best move. You can count cards (remember past reads) for a little edge, but mostly each hand (play) is independent. Doubling on an ace against a 10 (airing it out to Christian Watson one on one) is risky, but it may be the best expected outcome and the move for a smart gambler to make.

I remain constrained by Bushwood.

Jared from Nashville, TN

With all the questions recently about coordinating substitutions and getting personnel packages on and off the field, it makes me appreciate the need preseason games beyond that of player evaluation.

They're important dress rehearsals for young players still acclimating to the NFL game.

Nathan from Williamstown, MA

Before Vic opens his blinds again, can you imagine if the NFL made flags reviewable in the same way the World Cup has? "The ruling on the field was pass interference, defense. However, there was mistaken identity. After review, it is pass interference, offense..."

Were you around during the 2019 season?

Kerry from Lakewood Ranch, FL

In your opinion, is this the most competitive NFC in recent memory?

I think it'll be difficult to top last year, when 11 of the NFC's 16 teams won at least eight games, and a 12th team had seven wins and a tie.

Jon from Rochester, MN

Even though it's subjective, how do we decide (during training camp) which type of win is a win we are looking for? Is it better to see Jordan Morgan dominate the LT position and leave people with questions about our pass rush lacking? Maybe it's better for our DL/ED to be incredible, and entice people to believe our OL is going to be lackluster? I feel the answer is iron sharpens iron, and seeing positives on both sides is great. What are your thoughts on the matter?

You want to see both sides have their moments, because it shows what they're capable of while at the same time providing the necessary opportunities to learn and improve. A little humility spiced into confidence boosts makes for a balanced growth process.

Jay from Altoona, WI

In a perfect world, the Packers would have an explosive returner who can also contribute to another position. Mecole Hardman was signed last season but was unable to make the roster and the Packers' return game suffered. Now Skyy Moore has been signed. Unless he flames out as a returner, do you foresee Moore making the roster even if he demonstrates that he offers little as a WR? Would the Packers be willing to have another dedicated specialist on the active roster?

My best guess is yes, considering the one-year financial commitment to Moore ($1M signing bonus, $2.5M total) is much greater than that for Hardman last year ($150K signing bonus, $1.5M total).

Doug from Neenah, WI

Good morning, Mike. Isaiah McDuffie's contract extension was welcome news. He is the last player remaining with the team from his 2021 draft class. But isn't it interesting that Eric Stokes, Josh Myers, Royce Newman, TJ Slaton, Shemar Jean-Charles and Cole Van Lanen are all still in the NFL with different teams? All of them (and Amari Rodgers) were drafted ahead of McDuffie at 6.220.

The Packers got some good football out of a few of those picks, but I would argue they've gotten the best out of McDuffie. He just keeps showing up and doing his job.

Bruce from Jackson, WI

Mike, after last season coach was going to take time and figure out what caused our collapse. Did I miss what their conclusion was? The answer can't be cross your fingers and hope our stars don't get injured this year. That's not a plan. I think we need a better running game to limit our opponents' touches, especially at home in cold weather. Longer drives, resting our defense. Just look at our playoff loss. I know there is no one answer, but shouldn't we start there?

The main thing is, yes, there's no one answer. The struggles to run the ball, breakdowns in the secondary, and failures on special teams all factored in the difficult defeats, so there are any number of starting points. Take your pick. And yes, hope is not a plan. But I'll say this: If between early November and mid-December, four of the top 10 players on the team are lost for the season due to injury again, I wouldn't expect better results. The best players need to play in order to win the biggest games. Without them, the margin for error evaporates.

James from Appleton, WI

There's depth where the next player up can adequately do your job and then there's depth where the next player up could take your job. Has the offensive line finally returned to the latter?

I don't think so, and I'm not sure it's ever been there beyond the sixth man. But we'll see what happens when the first injury strikes and somebody new has to step in.

Tim from Fayetteville, NC

Against what team do the Packers have the highest winning percentage?

The San Diego/L.A. Chargers, .846. The Packers are 11-2 against them.

Mike from Baraboo, WI

Who do you think will have a bigger statistical season, Watson or Jayden Reed?

I could see Reed having more catches and TDs, Watson having more yards.

Nick from Toledo, OH

What young player has been catching your eye that can be influential this season?

The young players who catch my eye the most are rookies from the previous season who come back in Year 2 with bodies that look physically stronger and more mature. This spring, that was Matthew Golden and Barryn Sorrell.

Gordon from Newport Beach, CA

The Brewers just took four of five from the Cardinals, then got swept by the Pirates. It got me thinking: Which sport is actually more matchup-driven – MLB or NFL? Does football have the same "bad matchup" phenomenon where styles and personnel can outweigh overall talent, or is baseball still king when it comes to matchup dependence?

Matchups play a big role football, but I'd say it's still larger in baseball. Because in football, adjustments can be made with other players to help mitigate a matchup disadvantage. In baseball, it's just hitter vs. pitcher, and the only workaround is the intentional walk, which isn't always prudent.

Mutt from Blaine, MN

Just a shout out before things get a little more exciting. It recently dawned on me how well you get to know the II community. To remember names from the millions of emails (my exaggeration since I don't want to break rule 1) is a testament to the connection you have with us readers. Thank you for taking the time to engage, educate, and entertain. Life moves pretty fast, thank you for helping us not miss it.

The first practice of training camp is two weeks from today. Happy Wednesday.

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